Feeds from Dr. Robert Shiller, the Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University and Winner of the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economics.
Because of Dr. Shiller’s great reputation as an economist and his work in creating a widely cited measurement of stock market valuations (cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings), I decided to feeds to his work and the CAPE index itself. The below feeds and site are not affiliated with Dr. Shiller, nor am I, they just contain news from his own published work.
Disclaimer: None of this should be construed as investment advice, it is for informational purposes only.
Shiller Feeds The latest by and about Dr. Robert J. Shiller, Nobel prize winner and author of Irrational Exuberance. Independent and unaffiliated.
- Stock, Bond and Real Estate Prices Are All Uncomfortably High
The prices of stocks, bonds and real estate, the three major asset classes in the United States, are all extremely high. In fact, the three have never been this overpriced simultaneously in modern history.Read more
- Looking Back at the First Roaring Twenties
We are in a second Roaring Twenties, or so you might think, from the countless comments suggesting that we are entering an exuberant decade that echoes the one of a century ago.Read more
- Making Sense of Sky-High Stock Prices
Many have been puzzled that the world’s stock markets haven’t collapsed in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic downturn it has wrought. But with interest rates low and likely to stay there, equities will continue to look attractive, particularly when compared to bonds.Read more
- People Fear a Market Crash More Than They Have in Years
The coronavirus crisis and the November election have driven fears of a major market crash to the highest levels in many years.At the same time, stocks are trading at very high levels. That volatile combination doesn’t mean that a crash will occur, but it suggests that the risk of one is relatively high. This is a time to be careful.Read more
- How to Navigate the Coronavirus Real Estate Market
There are signs that pockets of the U.S. housing market are heating up, particularly in the suburbs and fashionable exurbs, to which people have been fleeing to escape the coronavirus.Some first-time buyers are feeling a sudden hurry to buy, fearing higher prices if they wait. But they are also worried about the long-run outlook for home prices.Read more
The Shiller PE ratio is price divided by the average of ten years of earnings (moving average), adjusted for inflation for the S&P 500 stock index. The ratio is used to gauge whether the index is undervalued or overvalued by comparing its current market price to its inflation adjusted historical earnings record.
It is not intended as an indicator of impending market crashes, although high CAPE values have been associated with such events.
The Buffett Indicator
The Buffett Indicator (named after Warren Buffett ) is the ratio of total US stock market valuation to GDP. It is another indicator of the valuation of U.S. equities. It is not intended to predict crashes or market movement.