Economic indicators

Feeds from Dr. Robert Shiller, the Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University and Winner of the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economics.

Because of Dr. Shiller’s great reputation as an economist and his work in creating a widely cited measurement of stock market valuations (cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings), I decided to feeds to his work and the CAPE index itself. The below feeds and site are not affiliated with Dr. Shiller, nor am I, they just contain news from his own published work.

Disclaimer: None of this should be construed as investment advice, it is for informational purposes only. 

Shiller Feeds The latest by and about Dr. Robert J. Shiller, Nobel prize winner and author of Irrational Exuberance. Independent and unaffiliated.

  • Should You Buy a Home in the US?

    Even at currently elevated US home-price levels, buying still makes sense for those who are set on ownership. But buyers need to be sure that they can accept what could be a rather bumpy and disappointing long-term path for home values. Read more

  • Stock, Bond and Real Estate Prices Are All Uncomfortably High

    The prices of stocks, bonds and real estate, the three major asset classes in the United States, are all extremely high. In fact, the three have never been this overpriced simultaneously in modern history.Read more 

  • Looking Back at the First Roaring Twenties

    We are in a second Roaring Twenties, or so you might think, from the countless comments suggesting that we are entering an exuberant decade that echoes the one of a century ago.Read more

  • Making Sense of Sky-High Stock Prices

    Many have been puzzled that the world’s stock markets haven’t collapsed in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic downturn it has wrought. But with interest rates low and likely to stay there, equities will continue to look attractive, particularly when compared to bonds.Read more

  • People Fear a Market Crash More Than They Have in Years

    The coronavirus crisis and the November election have driven fears of a major market crash to the highest levels in many years.At the same time, stocks are trading at very high levels. That volatile combination doesn’t mean that a crash will occur, but it suggests that the risk of one is relatively high. This is a time to be careful.Read more

Shiller PE-Ratio

The Shiller PE ratio is price divided by the average of ten years of earnings (moving average), adjusted for inflation for the S&P 500 stock index. The ratio is used to gauge whether the index is undervalued or overvalued by comparing its current market price to its inflation adjusted historical earnings record.

It is not intended as an indicator of impending market crashes, although high CAPE values have been associated with such events.

  • Shiller PE Ratio

    Current Shiller PE Ratio: 38.52 +0.03 (0.08%) 4:00 PM EST, Fri Jan 14

The Buffett Indicator

The Buffett Indicator (named after Warren Buffett ) is the ratio of total US stock market valuation to GDP. It is another indicator of the valuation of U.S. equities. It is not intended to predict crashes or market movement.

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